Yuliia Zhukova

Finance and Economics Department, 

Borys Grinchenko Kyiv University,

Ukraine 

y.zhukova@kubg.edu.ua

ORCID 0000-0001-6312-9600

Modeling macroeconomic indicators in unstable economies

Olena Sobolieva-Tereshchenko

Finance and Economics Department, 

Borys Grinchenko Kyiv University,

Ukraine 

t8000@i.ua

ORCID 0000-0002-1086-1192 

Abstract. A method for analysis of the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators based on the model of a piecewise trend for economies of unstable growth is proposed. The relevance of the article is supported by the absence of adequate mathematical models and the inadequacy of traditional continuous models to describe the features of economic dynamics of this type. Its application is demonstrated on the examples of Ukraine, Greece and Italy in comparison with stable developing countries of Eastern Europe - the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland. In the process of approbation new indices of instability based on this model have been developed. A higher degree of conformity of the proposed model is proved in comparison with traditional continuous models not only for countries with signs of unstable economic dynamics, but also for some countries with stable economies. During approbation, a new index of instability of growth was developed based on this piecewise linear trend model. The indices of instability of growth were calculated for 43 European countries for the period from 1989 to 2019 and their rating was built.

Received: June, 2020

1st Revision: April, 2021

Accepted: May, 2021

DOI: 10.14254/2071-8330.2021/14-2/9

JEL Classification: E27, D61, G17

Keywords: GDP per capita, piecewise model, small squares method, growth instability index, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, Ukraine, Greece, Italy