Rafał Kasperowicz “The Causality Relationships between Energy Variables and Sold Industrial Output in Polish Economy”, Journal of International Studies, Vol. 4, No 1, 2011, pp. 69-80.

The Causality Relationships between Energy Variables and Sold Industrial Output in Polish Economy

Rafał Kasperowicz

Department of Microeconomics

Faculty of Management

Poznań University of Economics

rafal.kasperowicz@ue.poznan.pl

Abstract. Considering that energy is a very important source of industrial production, because production does not exist without energy, there are some significant relations between the use of energy and industrial production. The aim of this paper is to identify the causality relationships between the sold industrial output of Poland and variables describing energy consumption or energy sources. Another aim is to estimate a SIO (sold industrial output) equation. According to it the time-series underwent adjustment procedure Census X11 and Hodrick-Prescott’s filter. In this way fluctuations of time series were obtained. The procedure of seeking for the relationships between SIO and variables describing energy use was conducted by Granger causality analysis. Series selected by the causality relationship test were used to estimate SIO equation.

Submitted: August, 2011

1^st revision: September, 2011

Accepted: September, 2011

Keywords: business cycles, energy, industrial fluctuations, Granger causality, Poland.