Forecasting of macroeconomic stability post-pandemic recovery: The case of European countries
Vol. 17, No 4, 2024
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Aleksandra Kuzior
Faculty of Organization and Management, Silesian University of Technology, Poland aleksandra.kuzior@polsl.pl ORCID 0000-0001-9764-5320 |
Forecasting of macroeconomic stability post-pandemic recovery: The case of European countries |
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Alina Vysochyna
Department of Accounting and Taxation, Sumy State University, Ukraine a.vysochyna@uabs.sumdu.edu.ua ORCID 0000-0001-9490-1026 Wojciech Augustyniak
Poznań University of Economics and Business, Poland wojciech.augustyniak@ue.poznan.pl ORCID 0000-0002-8050-3147 Sándor Remsei
Faculty of Economics, Széchenyi István University Hungary sandor@remsei.hu ORCID 0000-0001-8862-4544
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Abstract. The unfolding of the COVID-19 pandemic has revealed "bottlenecks" not only in the healthcare system, which was unable to cope with a significant influx of patients and quickly eliminate the spread of coronavirus infection, but also the vulnerability of the socioeconomic systems of countries all over the world. The research aims to determine country-specific trend patterns of volatility of the integral level of macroeconomic stability and its components and forecast their values for the medium term to determine the dynamics of post-pandemic recovery. The implementation of the research objectives involves the implementation of the following steps: 1) determining outliers in data series that characterise the dynamics of the components of macroeconomic stability in the context of each of the 10 studied countries; 2) eliminating outliers; 3) determining the highest-quality functional form of the dependence of the change in the corresponding individual macroeconomic indicator over time; 4) forecasting the change in individual indicators and the integral level of macroeconomic stability for the medium term (2023-2025); 5) determining the deviations of the forecast values of the above indicators from their pre-pandemic level (2019) and end-of-pandemic level (2022); 6) qualitative interpretation of the forecasting results. |
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Received: December, 2023 1st Revision: June, 2024 Accepted: October, 2024 |
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DOI: 10.14254/2071-8330.2024/17-4/4
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JEL Classification: C32, C53, E17, F62, O11 |
Keywords: macroeconomic stability, economic growth, unemployment, inflation, coronavirus disease, COVID-19, European countries |
