Inessa Sytnik

Faculty of Economics and Management, 

Opole University of Technology, Poland

i.sytnik@po.edu.pl

ORCID0000-0002-7350-9639

Prerequisites and scenarios for the EU economy transformation inlight of Industry 4.0 development

Artem Stopochkin

Faculty of Economics and Management, Opole University of Technology, Poland

a.stopochkin@po.edu.pl

ORCID 0000-0003-2466-3725

Janusz Wielki

Faculty of Economics and Management, 

Opole University of Technology, Poland

j.wielki@po.edu.pl

ORCID 0000-0001-8973-768X

Said Edaich

Faculty of Economics and Management, 

Opole University of Technology, Poland

s.edaich@po.edu.pl

ORCID 0000-0003-0128-9734

Bogdan Sytnik

University of Economics in Katowice, Poland

bsytnik@outlook.com

ORCID 0000-0003-3943-8360

Abstract. The purpose of this study is to verify the condition of European Union economy and its ability to effectively implement the concept of sustainable development in the era of the fourth industrial revolution. To achieve the goal settled by this research, we used the technical indicator MACD (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence), based on the assessment of the convergence and divergence of moving averages of macroeconomic indicators. The studies carried out made it possible to identify three scenarios for the state of the EU economy after 2022. All these scenarios pose a high risk of a crisis phenomena in this economic system. According to the optimistic scenario, after 2022, a downward correctional wave is predicted in the EU-27 economy with the emergence of a situation similar to the situation in 2008. The search for a new economic model based on the active implementation of Industry 4.0 technologies can become a way for the EU economy to recover from the crisis and move to a qualitatively new level of socio-economic development.

Received: July, 2022

1st Revision: March, 2023

Accepted: May, 2023

DOI: 10.14254/2071-8330.2023/16-2/5

JEL Classification: F63, Q28, Q43, Q55

Keywords: European Union economy, economic model, Industry 4.0, economic development, scenarios of economic development