Grzegorz Przekota

Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic Sciences, 

Koszalin University of Technology,

Poland

grzegorzprzekota@wp.pl

ORCID 0000-0002-9173-2658

Causality of the relationship between wheat prices and economic conditions - an evidence for sustainable development

Anna Szczepańska-Przekota

Department of Finance, Faculty of Economic Sciences, 

Koszalin University of Technology,

Poland

anna.szczepanska-przekota@tu.koszalin.pl 

ORCID 0000-0002-4002-5072

Grzegorz Mentel

Department of Quantitative Methods, Faculty of Management, Rzeszow University of Technology,

Poland

gmentel@prz.edu.pl

ORCID 0000-0002-6371-1219

Urszula Mentel

Department of Security Science, Faculty of Management, 

Rzeszow University of Technology,

Poland

u.mentel@prz.edu.pl 

ORCID 0000-0003-2060-8980

Vytautas Snieška

Kaunas University of Technology,

Lithuania

vytautas.snieska@ktu.lt 

ORCID 0000-0001-8777-273X

Abstract. In the recent years agriculture as a branch of economy has been the subject of large transformations. Agricultural holdings have played a very important role for the sustainable socio-economic development. Agriculture is becoming more modern but its contribution to GDP is decreasing. The question as to the connection between the condition of the agricultural market and economy-wide conditions and sustainable development seems to be fundamental. This is the objective of this paper. Based on wheat prices and in the US, the UK, France and Poland in the years 2000-2018, the connection between these variables was determined. The tests for causality were carried, and the auto-regression VAR model was built. The general conclusions are consistent. It is evident that economy-wide conditions indeed depend on the prices of agricultural produce from the previous periods. High prices for agricultural produce and, in particular those of wheat, weaken future economic conditions. This conclusion for Poland and France is strong, while it is weaker for the UK and the US.

Received: November, 2019

1st Revision: June, 2020

Accepted: September, 2020

DOI: 10.14254/2071-8330.2020/13-3/11

JEL Classification: O11, O57, E32, Q11

Keywords: agriculture, wheat prices, GDP, causality, sustainable development