Viljar Veebel

Baltic Defense College, Tartu,

University of Tartu, Tartu,

Estonia 

Viljar.veebel@ut.ee

Is Estonian transit sector in trouble after the EU accession and sanctions against Russia? A qualitative study of transit flows

Raul Markus

Tallinn University of Technology, Tallinn,

Estonia

Raul@optium.ee

Abstract. The article investigates the reasons why transit flows have been volatile in Estonia during 2000-2018. Based on academic literature, the authors identify the following potential factors: the effect of the EU accession, EU-Russian economic sanctions; changes in the transit volume of oil products; changes in local infrastructure in Estonia; dynamics of political and economic relations with Russia; changes in market demand and Estonia’s inability to react and adjust to global trends; the development plan of Russian ports; dynamics of railway infrastructure charges in Estonia; unilateral nature of Estonia’s transit flows; changes in competitiveness of the Estonian transit sector; changes in container transit in Estonia, and changes in the value added in the transit corridor of Estonia. To assess the impact of these factors, a qualitative survey was conducted among the companies operating in the Estonian transit sector and the local experts in transit-related issues. The survey shows that next to Russia’s influence, other factors have also played a significant role. These are, e.g., the reorientation/restructuration of the Estonian transit sector, the impact of potential changes in local infrastructure, and the inability to identify long-term consequences of various policy measures imposed by its neighbours, or to estimate the outcome of other measures, such as the EU-Russian sanctions imposed during the Ukrainian conflict.

Received: October, 2019

1st Revision: March, 2020

Accepted: May, 2020

DOI: 10.14254/2071-8330.2020/13-2/16

JEL Classification: F1, F5, P4

Keywords: Russia, European Union, Estonia, economic transit