Volodymyr Ryaboshlyk “Turning Point vs Trend”, Journal of International Studies, Vol. 4, No 1, 2011, pp. 56-68.

Turning Point  vs Trend

Volodymyr Ryaboshlyk

ryaboshlyk@ukr.net

Abstract. At the beginning of the paper some shortcomings of the existing forecasting systems are demonstrated on examples of products of the EU forecasting service and of the Macroeconomic Prospect Team of the Treasury of the UK. And apart of it the smoothed lines of Nobel Prize winner of 2010 Professor Pissarides are considered in comparison with clear forecasts of turning points received by the author on the same time series. Then a description of forecasting of the recession of the early 1990s in the UK is given, as a part of forecasting of innovative growth. It is underlined that statistics must show explicitly ‘the height of technological leap’ and provide separate parameters of old and new technologies. And that the current focusing of attention on the most advanced technologies only should be broadened to all technologies which actually are being implementing in the economy. Comparison with the Cambridge Multisectoral Dynamic Model of the British Economy shows how peculiarities of reflection of new technologies could affect ability of seeing turning points. At the end some remarks are contributed to the current discussion between the competing schools. Positive aspects of the “Great Recession” of 2008 – 2010 are highlighted along with their similarity with previous crises. At that an attempt to restore the “shattered intellectual structure” of Alan Greenspan is made.

Submitted: August, 2011

1^st revision: September, 2011

Accepted: October, 2011

Keywords: forecasting of crises, quantitative indicators, EU countries, forecasting of the U-turns.

JEL classification:  C53, C54,G17