Erjan Akhmedov

Doctoral School for Management and Organizational Science,

Kaposvar University, Hungary

akhmedov.erjan@ke.hu

The impact of oil price shocks on selected Kazakhstan’s macroeconomic indicators

Abstract. This article studies the correlation between world oil prices and the selected Kazakhstan’s macroeconomic variables using the method of vector auto-regression (VAR). As expected, the macroeconomic variables under consideration demonstrate a significant correlation with oil price fluctuations. However, the results of the research show a certain discrepancy with the earlier researches, which considered previous negative oil price shock of 2008 in the form of quicker reaction to such shocks. This means that the dependence of Kazakh economy on oil price fluctuations increased since the previous oil price plunge . In this regard, it is worth pointing out that none of these researches targeted the relationship between oil prices and Kazakh macro-economy after June 2014, when the last oil price shock began. Another important result is the timeframe during which the influence of oil price shocks is actually significant. These results are important for understanding the processes happening in the economies of Kazakhstan and other oil-exporting countries.

Received: March, 2019

1st Revision: May, 2019

Accepted: November, 2019

DOI: 10.14254/2071-8330.2019/12-4/17

JEL Classification: C32, E17, E32, Q43

Keywords: oil price shock, macroeconomic time series, Kazakhstan, VAR