Rafał Kasperowicz “Forecasting fluctuations of sold industrial production in Poland on the basis of electricity demand”, Journal of International Studies, Vol. 2, No 1, 2009, pp. 72-80.

Forecasting Fluctuations of Sold Industrial Production in Poland on the Basis of Electricity Demand

Rafał Kasperowicz

Department of Microeconomics

Poznań University of Economics

rafal.kasperowicz@ue.poznan.pl

Abstract.The plan of the paper is as follows: introduction, section 1 with the data and econometric methodology, section 2 with empirical analysis and the model, and the conclusions. Two independent equations have been estimated. Results show that significant leading time series of sold industrial production are electricity demand in four industrial sectors:   production of string mass and paper, cars and metal final goods and production of machines and electric devices.

Key words:Forecasting fluctuations, industrial production, electricity, Poland

Submitted: January, 2009

1^st revision: April, 2009

Accepted: June, 2009

JEL classification: L52, C53, P1