Maja Nikšić Radić

Department of International Economics and Development, 

Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, University of Rijeka

Opatija, Croatia

majanr@fthm.hr

The tourism-led terrorism hypothesis – evidence from Italy, Spain, UK, Germany and Turkey

Daniel Dragičević

Department of Micro- and Macroeconomics, 

Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, University of Rijeka

Opatija, Croatia

danield@fthm.hr

Marina Barkiđija Sotošek

Department of Tourism, 

Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, 

University of Rijeka, Croatia

marinab@fthm.hr

Abstract. The aim of this study was to explore the causal relationship between terrorism and international tourism arrivals in several selected European tourist destinations. The main goal is to look at this issue from another perspective, i.e. whether the tourism-led terrorism hypothesis can be proved valid in addition to the already established terrorist-led tourism hypothesis. The study used econometric techniques such as the unit root test, the Granger causality test in a vector autoregressive model (VAR model), the analysis of variance decomposition and the impulse response function for the monthly time-series data from 2001 (1) to 2015 (12). Based on the research conducted, it was found that tourism Granger causes terrorism in Turkey, United Kingdom and Germany, while terrorism Granger causes tourism in Italy and Spain.

Received: September, 2017

1st Revision: January, 2018

Accepted: March, 2018

DOI: 10.14254/2071-8330.2018/11-2/16

JEL Classification: C22, D74, Z32

Keywords: tourism, terrorism, Granger causality, VAR, Turkey, United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Spain