Ankie Scott-Joseph

Department of Economics, The University of the West Indies,

Cave Hill Campus, Barbados 

ankie.scott-joseph@cavehill.uwi.edu

Warning no entry, debt restructuring in progress

Abstract. Concerns about new debt restructuring episodes are on the rise as the measures necessary to combat the COVID-19 inflict harsh fiscal pressure.  The decision to restructure debt is a particularly difficult one that countries should only seek as a last resort.  An important question is; how can a country avoid ‘deceptive reputational risk’ whilst attempting to reduce the cost of debt?  To address this question, this study investigates the effect of ‘deceptive reputational risk’ on the outcome of debt restructuring. That is, unintentional consequence of an increase in debt levels and the decline in gross domestic product (GDP), up to 10 years affect debt restructuring.  The paper utilizes Fixed Effects Panel approach to study data for Greece, Italy, Cyprus and Ireland for the period of 2000-2020. The study finds that investments, interest rate on debt and stable exchange rates can aid in minimizing ‘deceptive reputational risk’. The findings are important addition to the literature on debt restructuring.  To the best of the author’s knowledge, this study is the first to consider reducing deceptive reputation risk in fiscal policy through the use of macroeconomic variables – real effective exchange rate, interest rate on debt and investments.

Received: November, 2020

1st Revision: February, 2021

Accepted: May, 2021

DOI: 10.14254/2071-8330.2021/14-2/18

JEL Classification: H62, H63

Keywords: public finance, public debt sustainability, EU Member States