Ali Sarihan

Georgetown University, Department of Government,

USA

as2556@georgetown.edu

A new theory of military behavior in the Arab uprisings: ‘Pro-State’ and ‘Pro-Regime’

Abstract. Many articles have been published on civil-military relations. But the unexpected events circle that was the so-called Arab spring or Arab uprisings has created a gap that should be filled by scholars. The article sets forth a new theoretical framework that is pro-state and pro-regime by applying this framework respectively to the two different cases Tunisia and Libya. This article provides a comparison of the military’s behavior in Tunisia, which led to the success of the uprisings, and the military’s behavior in Libya, where the army fought protesters and precipitated in the NATO intervention and about 9 months of armed struggle. The data indicates that the military’s response to the social protests played an undeniable role in the diverse outcomes of the uprisings. Pro-state and pro-regime framework aids in the exploration of this response by integrating rational choice and institutionalism to develop a comprehensive lens through which we can view this phenomenon.

Received: March, 2020

1st Revision: December, 2020

Accepted: March, 2021

DOI: 10.14254/2071-8330.2021/14-1/1

JEL Classification: D74, F51, Q34

Keywords: Pro-state, Pro-regime, rational choice, institutionalism, Tunisia, Libya and the Arab uprisings