Tetiana Vasylieva

Faculty of Business Administration, Chair of Investment and Finance,

TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Germany;

Department of Financial Technologies and Entrepreneurship,

Sumy State University, Ukraine

Tetiana.Vasylieva@extern.tu-freiberg.de

ORCID 0000-0003-0635-7978

Sectoral reallocation and re-concentration of bank credit to non-financial corporations in the euro area: Evidence from a 2022 structural break

Eszter Kazinczy

Department of International and Applied Economics,

Kautz Gyula Faculty of Business and Economics,

Széchenyi István University, Hungary

kazinczy.eszter@sze.hu 

ORCID 0000-0003-0058-0992

Roman Hlawiczka

Department of Marketing, Faculty of Entrepreneurship and Law,

Pan-European University,

Prague, Czechia

Roman.Hlawiczka@opf.slu.cz

ORCID 0000-0002-6429-2095

Andreas Horsch

Faculty of Business Administration, Chair of Investment and Finance,

TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Germany

andreas.horsch@bwl.tu-freiberg.de

ORCID 0000-0003-4157-2454

Abstract. Sectoral allocation of bank credit has regained prominence in the euro area following the 2022 shock, as changes in lending composition increasingly shape investment patterns, structural adjustment, and financial stability. This study examines how bank credit to non-financial corporations in the euro area was reallocated across sectors after 2022, distinguishing between immediate level shifts and subsequent trend dynamics in sectoral loan shares. The analysis uses quarterly euro-area data on outstanding bank loan amounts (loan stocks in ECB terminology) to non-financial corporations by sector for 2015–2025. It applies descriptive analysis, post-period regressions, and a structural-break framework with alternative break dates. The results show a persistent dominance of real estate and professional services lending, whose share rose from about 34–36% before 2022 to just over 40% by 2024–2025 (≈ +3.35 percentage points). Construction and manufacturing recorded the largest average declines (-1.47 and -1.15 percentage points, respectively). At the same time, significant post-period increases are observed only for electricity, gas, and water companies (+0.66 percentage points), while declines are observed for agriculture (−0.42 percentage points). Structural-break estimates reveal a two-stage adjustment: Construction and real estate experienced negative level shifts at the 2022 break (around −2.8 and −2.3 percentage points) followed by positive post-break trends, whereas manufacturing, trade, and accommodation show the opposite pattern, i.e., initial gains followed by sustained declines, indicating that post-2022 reallocation towards productive sectors was temporary and ultimately gave way to renewed credit re-concentration.

Received: December, 2025

1st Revision: February, 2026

Accepted: May, 2026

DOI: 10.14254/2071-8330.2026/19-2/5

JEL Classification: E44, G21, C22, E32, O16

Keywords: industry, sectoral credit allocation, bank lending, non-financial corporations, structural breaks, investment reallocation, euro area