Hasan Tutar

Bolu Abant Izzet Baysal University, Faculty of Communication,

Bolu, Turkey;

Research Methods Application Center,

Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC)

Baku, Azerbaijan

E-mail: hasantutar@ibu.edu.tr

ORCID 0000-0001-8383-1464

The other side of war or migration and labor market imbalances: Evidence from Eastern Europe for the period 2014–2025

Yavuz Akçi

Bolu Abant Izzet Baysal University, Faculty of Communication,

Bolu, Turkey

yavuz.akci@ibu.edu.tr

ORCID 0000-0001-6755-6650

Anetta Zielińska

Wroclaw University of Economics and Business,

Wrocław, Poland

anetta.zielinska@ue.wroc.pl

ORCID 0000-0001-8592-3530

László Vasa

Széchenyi István University,

Hungary

laszlo.vasa@ifat.hu

ORCID 0000-0002-3805-0244

Abstract. This study investigates whether war-induced forced migration has led to persistent imbalances in Eastern European labor markets, with a specific focus on matching efficiency. The analysis utilizes a quasi-experimental design combining Eurostat and UNHCR quarterly panel data for the EU-27 from 2014 to 2025. The methodology employs a multi-period difference-in-differences approach and Beveridge curve regressions to isolate the specific impact of the Temporary Protection Directive flows. The findings indicate an upward and outward shift in the Beveridge curve following the 2022 shock, characterized by a simultaneous increase in vacancies and unemployment. The results demonstrate that high institutional integration capacity dampens these shock effects, while persistence primarily observed in service-intensive sectors. The study suggests that reducing matching costs through targeted language equivalence accelerators and fair placement algorithms is essential for market stabilization.

Received: November, 2024

1st Revision: September, 2025

Accepted: December, 2025

DOI: 10.14254/2071-8330.2025/18-4/3

JEL Classification: F22, J61, J64, J68

Keywords: war and migration, Ukrainian refugees, labor market imbalances, Beveridge curve, integration policy