Tomasz W. Kolasinski

Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics - National Research Institute, Poland

tomasz.kolasinski@ierigz.waw.pl

ORCID 0009-0003-7663-7956

Breakdown on the Polish crop market 2022-2023. Possible reasons and lesson for future

Agnieszka Tłuczak

University of Opole, Faculty of Economics, 

Poland

atluczak@uni.opole.pl

ORCID 0000-0001-6217-8822

Marek J. Wigier

Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics - National Research Institute, Poland

Marek.Wigier@ierigz.waw.pl

ORCID 0000-0001-5134-2295

Abstract. In the period 2022–2023, an unprecedented triad of phenomena profoundly disrupted the Polish crop market: (1) oversupply of crops due to abundant harvests in preceding years, (2) heightened crop price volatility on the international market, and (3) an influx of low-priced crops from Ukraine via the EU’s solidarity transit corridors. This paper aims to identify the impact of these shocks on the Polish crop market during 2022–2023 and to delineate their trajectories. Based on a segmented analytical model, we examine the following dependencies within the Polish crop market: 1. The relationship between MATIF wheat futures prices and domestic wheat prices in Poland; 2. The influence of cereal stocks on price formation in Poland; 3. The effects of fodder consumption and on-farm use of cereals on cereal price levels in Poland; 4. The interplay between the volume of Polish cereal exports and domestic cereal prices during the farming years 2020/2021 to 2023/2024. We conclude that the complex interplay of these phenomena, as observed during the period under review, is likely to become a persistent feature of the Polish crop market. The ongoing development of the European Union, particularly in light of Ukraine's accession as a major European and global cereal “granary,” presents significant challenges for Poland. As an agricultural country with the fifth highest Gross Value Added (GVA) in the sector within the EU, Poland faces considerable threats to the livelihoods and welfare of its more than one million farmers and their households. For these producers, Ukraine’s accession would critically extend a chain of interdependent and highly vulnerable variables such as grain harvest volumes, grain prices, and crop derivatives market prices that collectively determine their economic prosperity.

Received: June, 2024

1st Revision: March, 2025

Accepted: June, 2025

DOI: 10.14254/2071-8330.2025/18-2/12

JEL Classification: D40, Q10, R10

Keywords: Polish crop market, armed conflict in Ukraine, crop price formation in Poland