Jacek Jankiewicz

Department of Microeconomics, Poznań University of Economics and Business,

Poland

jacek.jankiewicz@ue.poznan.pl

ORCID 0000-0001-7183-0851

Formation of household opinions and the situation in the labour market in Poland

Radoslaw Trojanek

Institute of Social Sciences, University of Kalisz,

Poland

r.trojanek@uniwersytetkaliski.edu.pl

ORCID 0000-0002-8614-9484 

Abstract. Consumer sentiment and opinion indicators are fundamentally driven by respondents' economic circumstances and financial status. The volatility of these variables is hypothesised to correlate significantly with labour market dynamics, particularly unemployment rates. This study investigates these relationships by analysing quantitative and qualitative labour market indicators. The methodological approach incorporates consumer survey metrics, business tendency indicators for projected employment, and macroeconomic variables. The findings reveal a distinct dichotomy in how respondents evaluate macroeconomic conditions versus their household circumstances. For macroeconomic assessments, the data necessitated transformation into annual relative increments, whereas household-specific evaluations demonstrated stronger correlations with economic trend-cycle data. Labour market conditions emerged as the predominant factor influencing household sentiment, with particularly robust correlations between macroeconomic indicators and consumers' savings potential and feasibility assessments. Among the macroeconomic variables examined, the highest predictive validity was exhibited by consumer assessments regarding durable goods purchasing rationale, savings capacity, and the aggregate consumer confidence indicator (CCI).

Received: October, 2023

1st Revision: October, 2024

Accepted: December, 2024

DOI: 10.14254/2071-8330.2024/17-4/2

JEL Classification: D12, E20, E24

Keywords: consumer surveys, consumer attitudes, unemployment